The effects of climate change are becoming more and more apparent, but there is no need to panic. Slowly adapting to the changing world will be the best course of action for humans and animals alike.
The climate change 2021 is a term that has been used to describe the need for adaptation, not panic.
Important facts concerning climate change don’t always make it into the mainstream media coverage as the global climate summit in Glasgow approaches in November. We’re here to assist you. Each Thursday, Bjorn Lomborg, a contributor, will offer some background information so that readers may better grasp the actual impacts of climate change and the true costs of climate policy.
Climate catastrophes are simple to create. You just take a present, alarming trend and extrapolate it into the future, disregarding all mankind might do to adapt. For example, one widely publicized research showed that if global warming continues at its current rate, heat waves may kill thousands more Americans by the end of the century—but only if people don’t use more air conditioning. Yes, the climate will change, but so will human behavior as a result of it.
Adaptation does not eliminate the cost of global warming completely, but it significantly reduces it. If farmers continue to produce the same crops, yields will be reduced, but they will likely adapt by planting other kinds or plants entirely. Corn production in North America has moved from the Southeast to the Upper Midwest, where farmers benefit from longer growing seasons and fewer bouts of severe heat. When sea levels rise, governments construct fortifications, such as the levees, flood walls, and drainage systems that shielded New Orleans from the brunt of Hurricane Ida’s wrath earlier this year.
Despite this, many in the media promote exaggerated climate disaster scenarios while neglecting adaptation. According to a recent research, the greatest distortion in studies on sea level rise is the propensity to neglect human adaptability, which exaggerates flood risks in 2100 by up to 1,300 times. The Washington Post is concerned that rising sea levels would “render 187 million people homeless,” CNN is concerned about a “underwater future,” and USA Today is concerned about tens of billions of dollars in anticipated yearly flood damage. All three are based on research that implausibly presume that no civilization on the planet would adapt in any way for the remainder of the century. This is scaremongering, not reporting.
One well recognized research, shown in the graph below, shows how distant these kinds of predictions are from reality. If you assume that no civilization will adapt to any sea-level rise between now and 2100, you’ll discover that large swaths of the globe would be flooded on a regular basis, inflicting $55 trillion in yearly damage in 2100 (in 2005 dollars), or roughly 5% of global GDP. “In fact,” the research stresses, “societies are likely to adapt.”
The research indicates that simply increasing the height of dikes, mankind can avoid nearly all of the predicted harm by 2100. Only 15,000 people would be inundated each year, a significant reduction from the 3.4 million individuals who were flooded in 2000. Between now and 2100, the entire cost of damage, new dike investments, and current dike maintenance expenses will drop sixfold to 0.008% of global GDP.
When it comes to preventing floods, adaptation is much more successful than climate legislation. Separately compare the two kinds of policies. Even if there was no climate mitigation, dikes would still protect more than 99.99 percent of flood victims if global warming remained on its present path. In 2100, instead of 187 million people, just 15,000 would be inundated. On its own, climate policy does considerably less. Even strict restrictions that keep global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius will only decrease the number of flood casualties to 85 million per year by the end of the century if no adaptation is made.
When utilized in conjunction with dikes, strict climate policy has only a little impact: You’d have 10,000 flood victims instead of the 15,000 you’d get if all you did was adapt. And getting there would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, far outweighing the $40 billion reduction in overall flood damage and dike costs that climate controls would provide. As I’ve already said on these pages, this kind of policy has a huge human cost: the tens of millions of people who are forced into poverty as a result of costly climate laws.
You don’t have to predict catastrophe to be concerned about climate change. Ignoring the advantages of adaptation may result in stronger headlines, but it misinforms readers significantly.
Mr. Lomborg is the head of the Copenhagen Consensus and a Hoover Institution visiting fellow. “False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet,” is his most recent book.
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The print version of the October 21, 2021, was published.
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